I remember scratching my head in the early noughties when reading our chief economist at the time (Stephen Roach) views around the ‘double-dip’ recessionary risk and in particular the possibilities for stagflation.
Not being an economist, i struggled to understand the conditions that would allow inflation to persist, while also seeing slower growth.
It seems the conditions maybe here now.
Following the GFC in 2008, central banks moved into a highly accommodative policy position, cutting rates to zero and buying bonds, which had the effect of injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system and anchoring risk.
There are many…
I was lucky enough to be at Wembley last night, hoping against hope that England might win. It wasnt to be, but for a few weeks, London — locked down for large parts of the last year — felt open and alive. Hopeful even. It reminded me of 2012 when the Olympics arrived, and how on the tube — the normal downward glaze of passengers was replaced with eye contact, smiles and even small talk.
The weather in London today reflects the mood. Grey clouds, rain, unpleasantness of a ‘few’ consuming headlines at the cost of the ‘many’.
There is a feeling, when you’ve made an investment and its working, that you are investing with the “market’s” money, or profit. You start to feel good, confident, you make better decisions, and think less emotionally.
The trouble is, the exact opposite seems to occur when you start to lose.
The initial thought, “it will bounce back”, is replaced with “overall i’m up”, to — sometimes, lets average down (buy more at a lower price).
The mental games we play with ourselves when losing can be extreme. We would generally be happier selling a winner (taking profit) than we would…
You hear about a company, you do some reading, have a look at a chart, and then — BAM!, its on twitter, or CNBC being talked about. You want to invest, quickly, you dont want to miss the move.
In my estimation in 99% of cases this is the wrong thing to do. As a friend of mine (#Louis) recently wrote, the best investors ‘leg’ into a position. That is to say they recognise short term timing is unlikely to be a long term winning strategy (particularly in light of the long term buying objective).
We studied the impact of…
I’ve been think a lot about this recently, and without wanting to go down the rabbit hole of investor liquidity (the mismatches that have grown over the last 20 years between investors demands and investment managers strategies), wanted to explore the concept.
I have had the pleasure of meeting and working with some of the smartest analysts and portfolio managers from around the world over the two decades, and while their strategies and approaches varied wildly, they had a few common traits.
The largest of which was, ability to manage their emotions or confidence.
In pro-investing; on the 1st of…
We’ve spent literally thousands of hours thinking about this very topic. Initially we focused on professional analysts and portfolio managers, we collected data….tonnes of it. Ex post. then we started to realise we were missing the most valuable insights. Ex ante. The things unsaid.
But then we were posed a challenge — how would you make a first time investor better?
Well that is a little like saying how do you get someone coming to the gym for the first time fitter?
We started to break it down?
What is it that you want to achieve? A six pack for…