We have broken the world’s outcomes into 4 pieces.
- we move towards disaster
- we see a fairly quick return to the status quo
- we see a more positive world with a more open Russia following the war
- we see a more complicated world emerge
Today we are going to dig into a return to the status quo.
This is reasonably simple, in that 2 weeks ago this was the case.
We had interest rate concerns, a change in central bank policies (in the west), and a worry about global growth following the pandemic.
Markets we believe would remain volatile as we move into interest rate hikes and pressure might continue to be applied on high growth technology names, with companies stablility of cash flow becoming increasingly exciting over growth prospects.
In this world you would be looking for companies that contain a balance of growth, but being more selective, while increasing your weightings towards the more ‘boring’ companies, who make and sell things for a profit.
You will need to decide how far the hiking goes, and do central banks get to target rate, or does the pressure on the consumer become too much to bear hurting the economy as funds are directed away from discretionary spending towards covering living expenses (mortgages, credit cards, car payments).
To help you in this process we will release a Curation of companies to look at that might work in this scenario.